AMERICA AND CLIMATE CHANGE: CONCEPTS, LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE AND IMPACTS

 

By:      Edward A. Council

 

1.0                INTRODUCTION

 

 

          Climate change can be defined as the long term variation in the expected weather of a specific region or regions of the Earth and is caused by either predictable and/or non-predictable forces.   Wikipedia further suggests that climate change reflects abnormal variations in the expected climate as the atmosphere is modified http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change).  One aspect of long term climate change can either be an increase or decrease in global temperature.  Based on atmospheric measurements, recent climate change is generally believed to be toward increasing global temperatures (see Figure 1).

 

 

 

 

Figure 1.  Carbon Dioxide verses Global Temperature since 1880 (zfacts.com).

 

          Regardless of its causes, the potential impacts of climate change can be very significant.  During multiple times in the past, climate change is believed to have placed significant stress upon ecosystems that resulted in global scale extinction events (Cooper et al., 2003, Joachimski et al., 2003).  Similar conditions are also known to have negatively influenced man, and more than once resulted in the collapse of large historic cultures such as the Mayan and the Anasazi (Feynman, 2007, Schwinning et al., 2008).

 

          Although it strongly appears we are in a period of global warming, the causes of these changes are being actively debated by those parties who stand to gain or lose, depending upon the conclusions.  The debates largely center on the cause and effect of increasing temperature levels.  These changes are anticipated to cause increases in sea level elevations and weather pattern variations that may cause decreases in world-wide agricultural production.  Each of these issues is anticipated to result in destabilization of populated areas.  Although, stresses upon humans should increase through time, impacts upon ecosystems may be more pronounced as humanity adapts by placing more of its burden on those systems (i.e. externatilities). 

 

          The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the processes and potential impacts associated with global warming as it relates directly to the United States (i.e. sea level and agricultural production changes).  This will include the identification of processes attributed to climate change and various perceptions and biases the United States has on these issues.  Potential but limited adaptation techniques for climate change will be addressed.  However, it is not anticipated to be a holistically destructive issue at least in the United States.  Given this, the final purpose of this paper will be to identify the longer term actions this society will likely implement as it responds to climate change.

 

1.1        HISTORY OF ISSUES AND BACKGROUND

 

          The concept of global warming generally had its origins in the early studies associated with European glacial geology.  In the eighteenth and nineteenth century, European geologists noted cyclic changes were present in shallow rock formations that suggested periods of fossil rich sediments were followed by fossil-poor strata and then back again.  The succession of these strata suggested climate periodically changed from warmer to colder conditions.  These strata were often massive and could be correlated across large geographic areas.  This strongly suggested climate change was probably a historically important global process.  Further, sea levels changes attributed to climate change varied approximately one hundred meters since the last 18,000 years (Michener, et al., 1997).  These water level changes were also reflected in the rock record regardless of the presence of biological remains.

 

          These early studies then began to coalesce around information from contemporaneous conditions that existed in various mountainous regions where active glacial and recently post-glacial environments existed.  Study of these conditions suggested that a repetitive but undefined factor(s) probably cause cyclic changes to occur that lasted long periods of time.  These changes were also found to be massively destructive with fertile land being destroyed as it was covered by sea or ice hundreds to thousands of meters thick (Summerson, C., 1959).  However, these conditions were restorable after the glacial periods ended (Raffl et al., 2006).

 

          Given the identified potential that climate change is often destructive, scientists have sought to use past climatological information as a means of predicting future long term weather conditions.  With more data and the advent of sophisticated analytical techniques, models have been developed that suggests internal and external mechanisms could explain the cyclic nature associated with the long term patterns.  Although still in its infancy, these lines of logic strongly suggest that climate is rarely a static condition but constantly changes through time. 

 

          Without using any knowledge associated with the processes that ultimately control climate, current evidence suggests periods of increasing atmospheric temperatures are occurring.  This evidence include; 1) modern glaciers and continental ice sheets retreating across most of the world, 2) atmospheric mean temperatures have increased since the mid 1800s and 3) biological changes are occurring that alter the distribution and ranges of many species.  Baring a radical change in the forces driving these conditions, a period of continuous warming appears to be occurring across the world (Gillett et al., 2008).

 

          Due to rising temperatures, glacial ice and sea ice are melting worldwide at accelerating rates (Turner et al., 2005, Shepherd and Wingham, 2007).  It has also been predicted that the Arctic Ocean and other ice covered regions may become ice-free within a few decades due to the increasing temperatures (Holland et al., 2006; Comiso, 2006).  Given the Arctic Ocean is believed to have been ice covered at least for the last 14 to 18 Million years, recent changes appear to be unprecedented (Darby 2007, Darby, personnel communication).  This is even more troubling given the ice covered Arctic Ocean plays a pivotal role in the modulation of the global climate and the impact of the decreasing ice mass should reverberate globally.

 

1.2     SCIENTIFIC STATE OF KNOWLEDGE

 

1.2.1    Thermohaline System

 

          Rivers in Northern Canada and Eurasia drain freshwater into the Arctic Ocean.  This causes the upper 100 meter of the Artic Ocean to be slightly less saline than the underlying waters and the fresher water allows ice to more easily form.  As surface ice is formed, its crystallographic structure causes the rejection of most salt from the ice.  The expelled salt mixes with other sea water to become denser and heavier.  This heavier water then sinks towards the bottom of the ocean and coalescences into a larger mass that migrates from the pole as a pseudo conveyor belt (i.e. defined as the thermohaline circulation system, Figure 2, Splettstoesser, 2007).  This system migrates across the world’s oceans. 

 

 

Figure 2.  Thermohaline Circulation System

 

          The conveyor belt is heated as it moves toward the equator, becomes slightly lighter and migrates toward the surface.  Via a conservation of mass and continuity process, the water continues to move back to the poles with the warmer, pole-ward moving water located above the more dense salt-rich water.  Once back in the polar region, cold air chills the water and heat is released.  As cooling continues new ice forms which allows the thermohaline circulation system to function.

 

          Depending on the location of the ice and the atmospheric conditions, the sea ice either drifts around in the Beaufort Gyre, or if entrained by the Transpolar Drift, moved more quickly toward the Fram Strait (Darby, 2008).  From there it is discharged into the North Atlantic Ocean.  As this ice moves away from the poles, heat from adjacent water and the air is adsorbed during the melting process.  As such, both the dense water and the ice generated in the polar areas help to reduce excess heat generated elsewhere.

 

          Large-scale climatic fluctuations are known to have occurred in the past and data associated with these fluctuations are preserved in the geologic record.  Based on these paleoclimatic studies, the effectiveness of the thermohaline circulation system is related to several processes.  These include the input of excess freshwater in critical areas (i.e. resulting in warm periods), export of large amounts of ice during deglaciation periods (periods of change from cold to warm) or the restriction of ice export during glacial periods (i.e. very cold periods).  These paleoclimatic studies also suggest the system is self regulating.  For example, during the transport of excess ice, more heat must be transferred from the oceans to melt the ice.  Studies of these conditions suggest during deglaciation, a quick reversal back into glacial conditions can occur.  However, the rate of change from cold to warm periods is faster than the change from warm to cold periods (Darby Personnel Communication).

 

          During prolong glacial conditions, continental ice sheets experience basal melting once the overlying ice exceeds a critical weight due to the pressure-temperature relationship between ice and water.  This layer of water then acts as a lubricant to cause the ice sheets to move towards areas of lower pressure (i.e. ice caves into the ocean).  As the force of the large amount of moving ice increases, rapid collapse in the ice sheets can occur as they are expelled from the Polar Regions along with the sediments they carry (Polyak et al., 2009).

 

          Data associated with warmer periods, suggest that some ice probably still covered large portions of the Arctic at least during the winter months.  These data suggest even during the previous warm conditions, when some of the Polar ice might have completely melted, it quickly reformed across the ocean (Darby, 2007, Helmeke et al., 2003).  This strongly suggested that at least in the geologic past, there was longevity in the mechanisms that helped prolong the existence and formation of the polar ice sheets (Broecker, 1998).

 

1.2.2    Greenhouse Gases

 

            The process that impacts global temperature is associated with the relationship between solar radiation, the surface of the Earth and atmospheric gases.  As the shortwave radiation passes through the atmosphere, it is absorbed by the Earth.  There it is reemitted as heat, which is partially absorbed by the greenhouse gases.  These gases then transmit part of the heat back towards the earth (Pidwirny, 2008).  If the absorbed energy is large, temperature increases over a period of time can occur.

 

          Given these conditions, climate change appears to be a function of several greenhouse gases that impact or are impacted by atmospheric temperature.  The dominant, non-water greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and several chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).  Levels of these gases appear to be increasing since the last 200 years. 

 

          In 2005, CO2 levels rose to a global average of 378.9 parts per million (ppm).  This concentration was above the pre-industrial value of approximately 280 ppm and was even higher than any other level identified over the past 650,000 years (Siegenthaler et al., 2005, Shein et al., 2005).  This same phenomenon is also noted for CH4 where its current levels are well above its natural range of 320 to 790 parts per billion (Alley et al., 2007).

 

          The greenhouse gas and temperature relationship suggests that anthropogenic activities, such as burning of fossil fuels that release large quantities of greenhouse gases, may be a cause of the temperature increases.  However, this relationship does not confirm the cause of global warming nor does it provide a long term prediction of the possible trends.

 

          The correlation between CO2 levels and increasing global temperatures is not straight forward.  It suggests changes have occurred in the past between which variables is dominant and which variable is independent.  Several facts exist that suggest a simplistic relationship between increases in select greenhouse gas levels and increases in atmospheric temperatures cannot completely account for global warming.  Specifically, water vapor, which is the primary greenhouse gas (i.e. accounts for approximately 95% of the greenhouse effect), has only recently been identified as increasing globally (Willett et al., 2008).  In this case, the increase appears to be a result of a positive feedback caused by atmospheric temperatures and is not the initial cause of the temperature change (Rind et al., 1991).  Further, long term CO2 and isotope based temperature data, temperature changes occur both before and after changes in CO2 levels (See Figure 3, Data from Petit et al., 1999).

 

 

Figure 3.  Changes in Atmospheric Temperature and CO2 levels over last 0.4 Myr.

 

          The rates of change of the other Greenhouse gases have also been reported since the mid 1700s and 1800s.  The correlation of these gases with changes on global temperature is generally less definitive than those of CO2 (See Figure 4, Butler et al., 2009).  Part of these relationships are believed to be associated with the rate of increase that appears to pre-dates the beginning rise of global temperature. Other issues are associated with their rates of change which are more off-set than that associated with changes in CO2 levels, which may be on the order of 50 to 100+ years (Smith et al., 2008). 

 

Figure 4.  Global averages of Several Greenhouse Gases.

 

          Although the long term relationship between the greenhouse gases and global temperature levels can be debated, the anthropogenic impacts are less debatable.  In the case of CO2, no historic conditions existed with levels similar to those of modern day concentrations (Gore, 2006).

 

          In 2009, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that these levels are anticipated to continuely increase for the foreseeable future and result in an accelerated rise in global temperatures in excess of 3°C to 5°C by 2100 (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29658424/wid=18298287).  As such, the greenhouse gases are believed to be the current control of the Earth’s temperature.  Studies further suggest a doubling or halving CO2 would bring approximately a 4°C rise or fall in surface temperatures (Arrhenius, 1896).

 

          Although the rise is CO2 is apparent, the earth oceans provide a self regulating mechanism that helps to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere.  These processes are part of the global carbon cycle (Figure 5).

 

 

 

Figure 5.  Carbon Cycle (www.euronet.nl/users/e_wesker/IPCC/source_sink.gif).

 

          Since the 1800s, the oceans have absorbed an estimated 127 billion metric tons of atmospheric CO2.  In this case, the absorbed CO2 gas is converted to a weak acid (carbonic acid), which is neutralized by the buffering capacity of seawater.  Due to the driving force of ever increasing CO2 levels, a measurable decrease in the pH of the ocean has also been noted (Feely, et al., 2009).  These changes in pH levels are believed to be significant as they suggest the acidification of the oceans could impact the stability of carbonate dependent marine species.

 

          Models suggest a cessation of CO2 generation will still require considerable time for the stabilization of both CO2 and ocean pH levels (Raven et al., 2005).  This lag has also left approximately 2/3 of anthropogenic produced CO2 in the atmosphere (Sabine et al., 2007).   Figure 6 illustrates the long term trends the oceans will experience as they continue to adsorb this gas, even if inputs of atmospheric CO2 where to stop in the very near future (www.leftopia.com/images/oceans/ocean_pH_since 1850.PNG).

 

 

Figure 6. Changes in Ocean water CO2 and pH levels.

 

1.2.3    Milankovitch Cycles and Other Conditions

 

          Other processes have been identified as potentially controlling the Earth’s climate.  One of the most prominent forcing mechanisms is attributed to perturbations in Earths orbit (i.e. Milankovitch cycles - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles).  Overall these cycles influences the amount of solar radiation that can reach the Earth’s surface.

 

          Three different orbital perturbations are associated with the Milankovitch cycle and include; eccentricity, axial tilt and precession.  Eccentricity is associated with variations in the shape of the earths orbit around the sun and has a cycle of approximately 100,000 years.  Oscillations in the Earth’s axial tilt vary between 21.5 and 24.5 degrees and has a period of 41,000 years.  The final orbital perturbation is associated with the Earth's wobble as it spins on its axis.  This top-like wobble has a periodicity of 23,000 years. 

 

          Due to the period differences in the three Milankovitch cycles, the overall variance impact of the cycles varies through time.  As illustrated in Figure 3, these cycles cumulatively have a period of approximately 110,000 years that drives climate from glacial to interglacial conditions (Petit, 1999).  It is interesting to note that models based on these cycles, without taking into account anthropogenic effects, suggest a long term trend toward glacial conditions over the next 20,000 years (Hays et al., 1976).  As such, other conditions must occur that derails or modifies the influences of the orbital perturbations (although the Milankovitch cycles may help to constrain climate change).

 

          The other modulating conditions include changes in the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth, volcanic activity and dust generated by asteroid impacts.  Of these potential issues, each is considered a minor factor in climate change (Sloan et al., 2008).  Specifically, data suggests that changes in solar radiation, is unlikely to cause a significant impacts on the Earth’s temperature as it often decouples from long term temperature trends (see Figure 7).

 

 

Figure 7.  Temperature, CO2 and Sun spot-Solar Radiation Trends since 1850.

 

          The final issues potentially influencing temperature is associated with processes that cause temperatures to fall (i.e. cool atmospheric conditions).  Recent examples of these types of conditions include the 1815 volcanic eruption of Mount Tamora which caused dramatic cooling for approximately five years (Soon et al., 2003).  The other type, large meteor impacts, are believed to cause short but extreme climate events such as a “Nuclear Winter” (i.e. the event at the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary which is attributed to have caused the extinction of the dinosaur , Pickens et al., 1997).

 

2.0       OPINIONS AND POLITICAL MOVEMENTS

 

          Regardless of the reasons (including biases and misperceptions), a limited number of individuals and groups have exploited the data associated with climate change in an attempt to curtail its effective management.  Nevertheless, most Americans still believe global warming is occurring.

 

2.1         REGULATORY ISSUES

 

          Regulatory involvement by the United States Government has been limited with respects to climate change issues.  Part of this problem was associated with the previous Bush administration, where a lack of commitment was partly due to the potentially large financial commitment needed to deal with climate change.  This lack of effort is also tied to the detrimental effect it would have upon the economy as manufacturing jobs are likely to move to areas that are not concerned about processes that generate greenhouse gases.  Specifically, other trading partners (i.e. India and China) could create economic advantages by not incorporating the same control the United State would use.  As a result, major efforts to curb greenhouse gases (i.e. the Kyoto Protocol) were never implemented by the United States Government.

 

          Although, the United States Government has not provided legislative leadership to manage climate change, multiple states and cities have passed and implemented laws to curb their own production of greenhouse gases.  Further, countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol or have passed other legislative that mandate controls often require United States companies reduce their own CO2 footprint.  A short listing of these groups include:

 

• California – Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
• New Jersey - Global Warming Response Act of 2007
• San Francisco "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets" Ordinance of 2008
• Emissions Treading – US and Trading Partners

 

          One major problem associated with curbing world-wide greenhouse gas production is due to the large footprint that developing nations have in CO2 production.  The five largest developing nations currently produce significant levels of CO2 well in excess of that associated with the United States.  Currently, China is the world’s largest producer of CO2 gas as a result of its use of coal as a fuel.  India, the forth largest generator of CO2 gas also has large supplies of coal which it likewise uses.

 

          Unfortunately, a reduction of CO2 levels and most other greenhouse gases have not occurred.  Almost all developing nations and some developed nations are unified in their resistance to these reductions as they will likely be expensive and reduce their gross domestic product.  As such, it is not anticipated any reduction in the greenhouse gas levels will occur in the near future.

 

2.2       AMERICAN ATTITUDES

 

          In a recent survey, 80+% of Americans indicated they were very supportive of legislation to mitigate/reduce global warming.  However, global warming ranked 20th out of 20 political issues in the survey (Pew Research Center, 2009).  Although most American still believed climate change was occurring, political affiliation appears to be a significant factor shaping their opinions.  Specifically, the more liberal a person’s political affiliation is, it parallels their opinions on climate change.  In the Pew Research Center study (2009), 84% of Democrats believed the earth’s temperature was increasing.  This level drops to 75% for Independents and to 50% for Republicans.

 

          Another issue affecting American attitudes appears to be who will pay to remediate the impacts of climate change.  When a “limited” financial impact of approximately $25/month was identified, public support was reduced by 40% to levels where 57% opposed supporting mitigation measures (World Public Opinions, 2009).  Given costs in excess of $5,000/family/year are possible, public support is anticipated to be much lower or even negligible.

 

          Political parties and industries consistently attempt to mold American attitudes on climate change for their own benefit.  This has lead to a miss-understanding on the sources and causes of the issue.  Those who have managed the debate appear to use tactics similar to those used by the Tobacco Industry during the 1940s to 1970s.  These techniques have been successful and have resulted in the delay of the political policies needed to better prepare for the potential impacts.  As a result of the delay, increases in funding have occurred, but only to study the problem.

 

          A result of the climate change debate has correctly identified that, in the short term the techniques associated with mitigating greenhouse issues will probably have a high cost to society.  However, data presented in studies referenced earlier in this paper suggests the cost to the United States may be approximately $1,000/family/year, less than the mitigation cost of $5,000/family/year.  Further, misperceptions by some suggest that the United States may gain at the expense of other countries.   This opinion is partially fueled by studies that indicate slight improvements in agricultural production will occur during the next 100 years as a result of changes in rainfall patterns and increases in temperature and CO2 levels (Reilly et al., 2000).

 

3.0      SUSTAINABILITY AND GLOBAL WARMING

 

3.1       CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

 

            Based on data presented by Field and others (2007), the impacts of global warming are anticipated to have a predominantly negative impact on humanity world-wide.  However, estimates for monetary damages are surprisingly low for the United State given the potentially devastating results world-wide.  In a study by Smith (1996), the annual climate damage estimate was between $55 billion to $111 billion or approximately 1% of the annual Gross Domestic Product.  However, this estimate does not appear to capture all the externalities that social unrest from adjacent countries may have on the United States or the reduction in trade with highly impacted countries (i.e. those closer to the equator).

 

            The following outlines some of the major impact the United State and World will experience via climate change in the next 100 years (Field et al., 2007).  Considerable overlaps in the various impacts exist as multiple feed back conditions occur between the groups.

 

            Most places will continue to get warmer.  Globally, the mortality rate will rise and food supplies will become stressed due to frequent weather perturbations.  As a result, regions not directly impacted by climatic stress (i.e. those countries located pole ward) are likely to become destabilized as refugees migrate from impacted regions, (especially from arid regions and those located closer to the equator, (Rowley et al., 2007).

 

            Sea levels will continue to rise for many centuries.  Low lying coastal areas will experience server flooding (i.e. <5.0 m).  This includes several major metropolitan areas in the coastal regions of the United States (i.e. New York, NY; Norfolk, VA, Southern Florida; coastal Louisiana; etc.) and other heavily populated areas worldwide (i.e. Bangladesh).  Although the seal level rise will probably be gradual, storm events will provide the most destructive force to coastal areas (Archfield, 2005).  Unlike the present, rebuilding of these impacted areas will eventually stop and large regions prone to storm damage will be abandoned (see Figure 8).

 

 

Figure 8.  U.S. Coastal Areas Impacted by in Sea Level Changes (Titus et al., 2001).

 

            Across the world the impacts on rising sea levels will be more pronounced than those associated with the United States.  In some cases, like islands in the Pacific Ocean, entire nations may be submerged within the next hundred years.  The impacts to wild life will be equally important where coastal habitats will be destroyed unless they can quickly adapt and move inland as the water levels rise.  This is especially true in low lying coastal areas, such as coastal wetlands that are especially prone to erosion (Burkett and Kuselr, 2000).  In some cases, the rate of displacement will over power the maintenance mechanisms of wetlands and the system will be inundated and not replaced.

 

            Weather patterns will keep changing.  Most arid regions will be subjected to drier conditions.   Extreme weather events are also anticipated to occur more frequent.  As such, flooding will become more common especially in areas were vegetative buffers have been reduced due to ecological stress.  As with the coastal areas, many of these regions will be abandoned and the existing populations will be displaced.  Ecological systems in these areas are likely to be heavily stressed and may be lost.

 

            Water Supplies will become stressed.  Mountain glaciers and winter snow packs will shrink and will not be replaced.  As such, areas that rely on their runoff will have a significant reduction to their water supplies. With a reduction in the water supply, food producing areas may have water diverted for human consumption.  Major fluvial systems such as the Nile River may also dry up (Ngaira 2007).  These changes will likely result in massive starvation and migration of large population groups to more sustainable areas.  Areas anticipated to be heavily impacts include Central American Africa and Asian countries (Vellinga and Wood, 2008).

 

            Ecosystems will be stressed.  Although some northern countries (i.e. the United States) may benefit from increases in temperatures, ecosystem displacements will widely occur across the world.  Many marginal and non-marginal species may go extinct or experience shifts in their locations.  Increases in temperature will also reduce oxygen levels in water and increase the potential for large water bodies becoming anoxic.  Ecosystem loses will be significant especially in regions where replacement areas do not exist or are occupied by groups that are less likely to be displaced.

 

            Select ecosystems will probably be more impacted than other, especially those that require considerable time to develop (i.e. estuaries).  The projected impacts associated with these systems suggest that larger ramifications will occur as these systems often have functional value outside their boundaries (i.e. nursery and breeding grounds for migratory species).  In one study on the Chesapeake Bay Region, considerable habitat destruction was projected due to loss of habitat from erosion and salinity increases (National Wildlife Federation, 2008).  Figure 9 illustrates selected habitat changes in this one area.

 

 

Figure 9.  Projected Habitat Change in the Chesapeake Bay.

 

            Increased carbon dioxide levels will affect biological systems.  Increases in CO2 levels are anticipated to be beneficial to some species (i.e. agricultural crops, Reilly et al., 2000).  At some point, excess CO2 levels will become directly detrimental to most biological species either by nutrient issues or via habitat displacement.  Most marine organisms are anticipated to be impacted by increases in CO2 levels in the water that will lead to long term acidification (Feely, 2008).

 

          There will be significant unforeseen impacts.  Most of these will probably be harmful but some may be positive.  Given these conditions are not known at this time that could be more damaging than the conditions identified above.

 

          The before mentioned impacts are not definitively but are defined by models and only provide a range of potential outcomes.  Also, based on paleoclimatic studies, the earth appears to be self regulating.  As temperatures increased in the past, ill-defined event(s) often occurred that quickly switched the earth from global warming into a period of global cooling.  Decoupling of the thermohaline (Obata, 2007) or off-gassing/sequestering of CO2 (Kump, 2009) are believed to be possible regulating mechanisms that causes warmer conditions to quickly shift to colder conditions.  These regulating conditions may ultimately limit or reduce the impacts identified above.

 

3.2       IMPACTS TO THE UNITED STATES

 

            For the United States most impacts will slowly occur through time as they have occurred during the last 200 years.  Given temperature and food productions impacts are anticipated to be minor in the near future, the impact from coastal erosion especially by storm surges will likely be the dominant impact.

 

            The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1998) suggests that each centimeter rise in sea level can generate a horizontal displacement of 1.0 m in elevation in low lying coastal areas.  In the United States. much of this land is currently highly populated (Archfield, 2005) as greater than 75% of its population lives within 65 km of a coast (Michener et al., 1997).  Recent conditions associated with moderate storms (i.e. the Katrina Hurricane) highlight the impacts they can have especially with tidal surges.  The impacts to these regions also include the negative influences saline water intrusions have to surface and aquifer-based water supplies (Masterson, 2006).  Given these conditions, it is likely that more observable consequences to climate change in the United States will occur in some of the highest populated areas.  These impacts will only be more pronounced as the rate of coastal erosion increases with time.

 

            A lesser impact will be the change that occurs in food production within the United States. In this case both land and water based agriculture will be affected by rising sea levels.  However, existing impacts already exist in some areas (i.e. Chesapeake Bay becoming anoxic).  Even though food production has dramatically dropped in this area and it is surrounded by some of the largest cities in the country (i.e. Norfolk-Tidewater Region, Washington D.C., Baltimore, etc) a failure to correct the problems can be attributed to a lack of sustained public outcry.  This suggests the failure to correct the problems is partially related to its slow rate of change (by human standards).  If this is correct, little progress will be made to mitigate the problems in these areas and they may experience a worst case scenario with significant alterations occurring to their ecosystems via climate change issues (USEPA, 2009).

 

3.3       AMERICAN POLICY AND MANAGEMENT

 

          Due to the potential risk of displaced population with increasing sea levels and the anticipated destruction of coastal areas, restriction on future land usages will need to be implemented.  This is needed to preserve those areas that are suitable for farming and replacement areas for ecologically sensitive zones.

 

          These restrictions must include designating buffer zones along coastal region to enhance the natural migration of estuarine environments (Zedler, 2004).  Other solution should include the engineered replacement of sensitive areas (such as wetlands) using a process similar to that employed by the Clean Water Act (Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Public Law 92-500).

 

          Each of these solutions has been employed in the past with various levels of success.  In the case of designating buffer zone, the Army Corp of Engineers has long used this type of policy to better manage land unsuited for development or provides an ecologically important habitat.

 

          It has been estimated that limited amounts of areas exist that are suitable for these type of replacement habitats.  Further, it is anticipated that less of these areas exist in highly populated areas where significant loss of the remaining sensitive areas will continue to occur as sea levels rise.  This suggests that a priority should be given now to protecting those limited areas via land use restrictions (Zedler, 2003). 

 

          In the case of engineered replacement of sensitive areas (i.e. wetlands environments), the quality of the replacement ecosystem has rarely been adequate.  In the cases of wetlands, only about 15% of their replacements achieve a similar level of functionality (Zedler, 2004).  Given this, “land use restrictions” appear to provide a better solution than the replacement option.

 

          In the identified cases (either replacement or placing restrictions on the land-use), the process of compensating the current owners may be required.  Per this, the costs to manage climate issues in the United States will likely increase above those estimated by others referenced in this paper.  However, the placement of easement restrictions is a preferable option as it provides compensation to the land owner where future conditions such as inundation by water may result in a total loss of the property value.  Further, if used in the present, the site conditions can be maintained without considerable future development impacts that may degrade land potential utility and value.

 

          Another issue to be implemented in the United States include the development and refinement of management programs at the state and federal levels.  This will require the continued collection and analyses of data applicable to a wide range of processes.  It is only through the collection and analysis of data that the optimal and appropriate decision making process can be developed. 

 

          For example, in the case of coastal erosion, only a handful of states or government agencies have developed any programs that are ready to manage climate related impacts.  As such, the programs are in a constant state of refinement (i.e. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Army Corps of Engineers) as site-specific is collected and analyzed.  In many cases, older and inefficient remedies/process are still used to manage problems, such as the use of dredge soils placed back onto eroded beaches or the use of jetties that cause depositional conditions to exist at the expense of other areas.  This indicates that more sustainable solutions must be developed to manage the long term processes (i.e. allowing erosion to occur in areas that feed sediments to other areas).

 

4.0       CONCLUSION

 

          Meaningful action to curb the potential sources and impacts associated with climate changes has been limited.  Although part of this failure is clearly due to misunderstanding and biases on the causes and impacts, issues such as the cost/benefit ratios and the inability to control foreign source of greenhouse gases have resulted in a general lack of action.

 

          It is also possible that the relatively slow pace of the observable impacts have played a dominant role in reducing the importance of this potentially devastating process.  It is interesting to note that of the 20 policy issues of concern to the U.S. population, none besides climate change and war (i.e. terrorism) have ever destroyed a culture.  This suggests that placing the issues of climate change at the top of the political agenda is prudent (i.e. as the Democratic Party did during the recent election).  However, priorities of the new administration have shifted to economic concerns that are at direct odds with climate change because it could cause a reduction in the countries economy.

 

          Given the limited but measurable costs to better manage global warming and the past failures the U.S. government to deal with other potentially catastrophic conditions (i.e. social security, minority issues, environmental concerns, etc.), it is unlikely meaningful action will be taken on climate change.  It is more likely a response to these issues will only occur as its effect becomes more evident and extreme.  Hopefully at that time, the responses to be implemented will not be too late.

 

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